Factsheets - No.1: The Impact of Post Hatfield Rail Disruption

Railways

Up to 40% railway passenger loss on some franchises in the early days
Network loss of 20% of passengers in early days
Commuter and Scotland-London inter city TOCs worst hit
On a normal pre-Hatfield day on the railways there were 2.7 million journeys. Since then the figures are estimated to have fallen to 2.3 million - a drop of just over 14%.
Some TOCs running 92% of timetabled journeys

Motoring organisation reports of 10% and 25% increases in road traffic a gross over exaggeration.
Even if the rail network had shut down completely and all travel transferred to single occupancy car trips, growth would only have been 8%
If all the 20% of passengers actually lost to the rail network became car drivers, car travel would have increased by about 1.4%
Across the country a network of automated traffic counters monitor traffic levels throughout the year. The complete national count is downloaded to the DETR every night and is not subject to statistical variation.
Results show no detectable increase in general traffic levels in London or elsewhere post Hatfield. There have been a number of falls in traffic reflecting flooding and bad weather.
Traffic on trunk roads has increased by 3.2% over the last year - not out of line with average traffic growth and not indicative of high growth as a consequence of Hatfield.
The M1 offers some evidence of traffic growth with a post-Hatfield increase in traffic flows of 5.9% between junctions 10 and 11 - where the road runs parallel to some of the most disrupted rail lines.

In the four weeks before Hatfield it carried 77 million passengers. In the first four weeks afterwards it carried 78 million - a lower increase than seen for the same period in previous years.

Disruption of rail services has led to 200 000 additional domestic passengers-a 15% increase.
BA's domestic passenger levels reported to be rising by 30% - and up to 40% between Newcastle and London.
British Midland are said to have seen up to 51% more passengers on Heathrow - Manchester routes.

December 2000